đź”— Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Made $436,000 from Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was publicly declared, raising questions about whether someone profited from non-public details of the event. Changing Odds in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the president had been apprehended. One account, which registered on the site in December and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Market statistics shows that users estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. Yet these probabilities had jumped to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the morning of the next day, suggesting a rapid movement in market sentiment just before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on confidential knowledge," said a financial reform advocate. A handful of other platform users also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Grows Elected officials are growing concerned. A new rule put forward on recently aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to predict everything from sports to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate. Trading on insider information is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting space. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."